Articles tagged: Iran
I Was Wrong. Lebanon Is the Better Model for Iran
The greatest risk is not just structural; it is behavioral. Iranians are caught in endless emotional debates, arguing over sides, blame, and narratives, while the system shaping their future remains untouched. This creates the illusion of engagement without any real impact. Lebanon shows what happens when a society stays trapped at that level: decades of paralysis. If a moment for change ever comes, it will not reward emotion; it will require clarity.
War as Signal, Alignment as Outcome
The war did not change the Islamic Regime; it exposed it. That exposure collapsed regional ambiguity and forced Gulf states to reassess risk. As hedging becomes untenable, alignment shifts toward actors capable of constraining Iran, while economic and informational systems adjust in parallel. Immediate regime change is unlikely, but the resulting regional realignment creates sustained pressure. The outcome is not sudden collapse, but gradual erosion driven by alignment, isolation, and structural constraint.
Rule of Law Within, Power Without
The rule of law functions inside states because it is enforced by sovereign authority. International order lacks such enforcement and has relied largely on American power since 1945. Critics of the Iran war must therefore choose: either the rules-based order requires enforcement, or the concept itself collapses into power politics.
Iran’s Real Transition Problem: The IRGC
Iran’s transition will hinge not on opposition leaders but on the fate of the IRGC. Dismantling it risks state collapse; preserving it risks regime continuity. Any post-regime stability depends on solving this institutional dilemma.
Wars of Today, Deaths of Tomorrow
A personal reflection on the moral weight of stopping a war versus allowing the conditions for future, larger wars to persist.
Diaspora: You Are the Opposition Now. Act Like it.
The left now has a rare opportunity to redeem its historical misjudgment of 1979 by engaging constructively in shaping Iran’s pluralistic democratic transition.
Architecture Before Allegiance: Liberalism, Pluralism, and Iran’s Political Future
Elections alone are not enough. Liberal democracy requires institutional limits and protected pluralism.
Iran: The Road Ahead
Iran's Islamic regime is a post-ideological dictatorship approaching collapse — the question is no longer whether it will fall, but how much violence and state failure will accompany its end.
The forever wars of the Islamic Republic
The Israel-Iran war won't end with a ceasefire — it's rooted in the Islamic regime's ideology, and each round will further polarize Iranian society and destroy its infrastructure.